Aurora Challenge - estimating a total of 36.235 million points

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Comments

  • you will have to count me out of your equations. there are only five portals in my town, and have had 20 in queue for ... ever.


    dont get out of town much these days, so 5*5=25, max of 25 points available if i get them all on the first try. which i definitely wont. not enough to qualify for first level badge.


    minus one agent participation.

  • ThaldeonThaldeon ✭✭✭

    I had gold for myriad, will not go over 500 for aurora

  • DrThodDrThod ✭✭✭

    A quick update how I'm doing

    This represents 315 portal hacks - I'm one day behind in adding the data into my spreadsheet. Overall I reached 425 uniques now and that means approx. 450 hacks.

    The challenge has very much skewed my normal hack pattern. I would say that I currently hack mostly P4/P5 with the occasinal P1 if I don't build it up but juist drop a single Reso. The challenge has changed this a lot - with mainly P1/2 hacks as I take a neutral one, hack it, level it to 2, hack it again. If I do a third round I upgrade to P3. P4+ are mainly preexisting levels.

    And this is correct - still no P8 - there isn;t any around me.

    I said that the sweetspot would be 2-3 points per portal. This represents my hacks per portal. I filter out duplicates with the same number of glyphs. There is a significant number of single ones - you just don't come back to some of them. So far only a single portal with 4 hacks at different levels. That one was a RES P6 - I hacked it, neutralized it and hacked again as ENL P1, P2 and P3.

    Somewhere in the data is also info about success rates of glyph hacks and wasted hacks (hacks on portals I already have done before). But too tired to tease this out. At the moment I'm at 1.74 hacks per portal - that means I would need 575 unique portals overall if I keep at that level.

    Not sure I will manage data input while I still try to get to 1000 points. But I might be able to add a few more stats tomorrow if I keep myself from writing too much here or on reddit.

  • ThaldeonThaldeon ✭✭✭

    i think you just overestimated a little bit...

  • DrThodDrThod ✭✭✭

    That is easy to say in hindsight. I did the maths ahead of the challenge as my gut feeling told me it wouldn’t be possible.

    I used best case assumption. Probably my main assumption that I got wrong - I allowed 80% of players who took part in Myriad to take part in Aurora at the same badge level.

    Half that number and we are good. I did estimate 16.3 million after checkpoint 3 (36 hours into the challenge). By that time the Niantic graph still estimated 30 million.

  • CliffMCliffM ✭✭✭✭✭

    I liked reading your analysis, and it gave me some hope at the outset we might be able to attain the goal, but 3-4 days into it, it was obvious it wasn't going to happen. There are many reasons that we didn't make it, but my best guess for biggest contributor was basing the goal on play that was influenced by non-player accounts, that were removed shortly before the challenge started.

  • grendelwulfgrendelwulf ✭✭✭✭✭

    Even people who were playing casually were contributing to the Myriad Hack challenge, but to contribute to the Aurora you had to make an effort to contribute. You had to glyph and the majority of players don't glyph level 1 portals, so less casuals (and non-medal hardcores) we're adding to the score. People generally only glyph when it is a high level portal or they want multiple keys so these portals might be glyphed multiple times but still only score once.

  • GoblinGranateGoblinGranate ✭✭✭✭✭

    That is correct, powerlevel also requires glyph hacking, but most players just tap-tap-tap.

  • vidiconvidicon ✭✭✭✭✭

    I just did a small analysis on local agents (just scrolled through comms pulling profiles until I got scanner running hot). If they had open stats, I recorded their actual point totals for myriad & aurora. If they had hidden stats, I assumed the following numbers:

    Myriad: locked = 50, bronze = 225, silver = 550, gold = 750 (midpoint for each tier except gold)

    Aurora: locked =0, bronze = 100, silver = 500, gold = 1000. (minimum for each tier)

    Using this, and my small sample size of 15 agents, I found that Aurora points were about 89% of Myriad points, which is a lot higher than the global ratio (61%).

    I don't want to extrapolate too much from such a small and biased sample set, but I suspect there is a combination of factors at play here - agents not playing as aggressively for this challenge, fewer agents playing due to vacations/weather, the removal of non-player accounts between the two challenges, and possibly more factors.

  • ThaldeonThaldeon ✭✭✭

    I agree. The problem is that the challenge was way harder to get to the same badge level than the last one.

  • oscarc1oscarc1 ✭✭✭✭✭


    I got 2,057 Myriad hack points and 2,112 Aurora glyph hack points. Theoretically, it should have been easier to get the glpyh points due to the fact that you could get multiple points from the same portal, whereas with Myriad 1 portal equalled 1 point. People just perceived the challenge to be more difficult because it required slightly more time to perform the glpyh hack. Once you get a little bit of momentum and figure out how it works, the challenge was easy.

    If people spent the same amount of time to glyph as they did to complain about the event, we would have won it easily.

    Also a challenge is supposed to have a level of difficulty, otherwise it's not a challenge.

  • It wasn't that the challenge was more difficult, it was that it was more annoying. The agents that I talked with about it were super annoyed with it... they got the 100 point badge and said "**** it, I'm done."

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