A hypothesis for the number of key drops from Glyph Hacks on P1

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How many keys drop during a hack? It seems difficult to get accurate data for this simple question, especially if you ask how many keys drop as bonus via Glyph hack.

I tried to figure out the effect of faction, speed bonus and difference in normal drops to bonus drops in an experiment. You can find the details on my blog - DrThod.com - unfortunately I can't yet link here in the forum. Maybe someone else can link the article directly in the comment section.

Findings:

Hypothesis 1:

The chance for a key drop is 75% for a P1 hack. The chance is the same for N, ENL, RES.

The 5-95% interval for the data is 73.7-79.2% - so other values between 73%-80% are possible. This seems in agreement with comments I found in various discussions about the topic.

Hypothesis 2:

The chance for a key drop for the glyph hack at a P1 is 25% x (1 + total hack bonus).

This means you have a 36% chance for a very slow hack with 15% speed bonus (25% 1.43) and a 56% chance for a fast hack with 95% speed bonus (25% 2.23). This is a new hypothesis and I haven't found anyone yet describing how key drops work during glyph hack.

It is clear from the data that you get less keys from the bonus hack compared to a normal hack (0.432 keys vs 0.765 keys). It also seems clear that you get more keys for fast hacks (0.530 keys) vs slow hacks (0.332 keys).

The value of 25% value was worked out using the data backwards. Assuming 0.198 extra keys (average fast hacks - slow hack) = 79,6% (average difference between fast and slow hacks) yields 24.9% as the hypothetical 100% value on which the bonus is based upon.

Hypothesis 2 would benefit from more data to confirm neutral fast hacks and opposing faction slow hacks.

The overall analysis is based on >100 hacks each for slow/fast N/ENL/RES for a total of 1301 data points.

Detailed data and discussion on my blog.